Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, has been experiencing significant growth in the number of long-term holders. This increase in hodlers has drawn comparisons to the 2017 cycle, which saw a 10x price appreciation. In this article, we will explore the recent surge in long-term Bitcoin holders, its potential implications for the next bull run, and the factors that could contribute to a 10x increase in BTC’s price.
The Surge in Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards recently observed the hodl waves for long-term Bitcoin holders, noting that the recent growth is comparable to that of 2016. He highlighted the significance of this surge, stating that it could have significant consequences in 2024. The growth in long-term hodlers during the previous bull run was not as pronounced, making this current cycle more similar to the 2017 one.
“That makes this cycle more similar to 2017, which saw 10X the price appreciation of 2020.”
- Charles Edwards (@caprioleio)
During the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin prices surged by 1,900% throughout the year. In contrast, the gains were closer to 600% during the 2020-2021 bull market. The comparison to the 2017 cycle suggests that the next bull run could potentially result in a significant price increase for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Sentiment and Market Outlook
Despite the current bearish market sentiment, analysts and traders remain optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. The fear and greed market sentiment index is currently at a neutral level of 50. However, there are several factors that could contribute to a bullish flip in the near future.
One of these factors is the four-year cycle theory, which suggests that Bitcoin experiences significant price movements every four years. The next cycle is expected in 2024, coinciding with the halving event scheduled for April and May of that year. The halving event, which reduces the block reward for miners, has historically been associated with bullish price movements.
Another potential catalyst for a price increase is the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. If approved, issuers would need to buy BTC directly, increasing buying pressure and potentially driving up prices. Additionally, the potential impact of a supply shock, with only about 2 million Bitcoins remaining available for purchase, could further contribute to a price surge.
Potential Drivers for a 10x Increase in Bitcoin Price
Aside from the aforementioned factors, there are additional drivers that could potentially lead to a 10x increase in Bitcoin’s price. One of these drivers is a favorable outcome for major companies such as Ripple, Coinbase, and Grayscale in their ongoing legal battles with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A positive ruling in their favor would be a significant win for the crypto industry and could have a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s value.
Furthermore, the potential inflow of $200 billion into the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF could also contribute to a substantial price increase. With a limited supply of Bitcoins available for purchase, this influx of capital could create a supply shock and drive up prices.
Crypto Market Analysis and Recent Developments
In recent weeks, the crypto market has experienced a decline in total capitalization, falling to $1.12 trillion at the time of writing. However, despite the decline, the market has remained relatively flat and range-bound since the mid-August dump.
It is important to note that market fluctuations are a common occurrence in the cryptocurrency space. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Conclusion
The recent surge in long-term Bitcoin holders has drawn comparisons to the 2017 cycle and has sparked optimism among traders and analysts. With the potential for a 10x increase in Bitcoin’s price, the next bull run could present significant opportunities for investors.
While market sentiment may currently be bearish, factors such as the four-year cycle theory, the upcoming halving event, the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, and the outcome of major companies’ legal battles could all contribute to a bullish flip and drive Bitcoin’s price to new heights.
